Thursday, March 6, 2008

Does Brazil's Embraer have a spare $1 billion it can lend to Japan Airlines?


Last month at the Singapore Airshow I was inside the Embraer chalet having lunch and chatting to one of the Embraer market analysts whose job it is to try and work out which airlines have a high propensity to order regional jet aircraft.

"I can't figure out where Mitsubishi is going to sell the Mitsubishi Regional Jet (MRJ)," he said.

His rationale was that Mitsubishi would struggle to sell the MRJ because Embraer had in the past couple of years sold RJs to nearly all the potential customers out there.

Coincidentally as he was saying this there were some executives from Japan Airlines (JAL) inside the chalet standing about 10 feet away from us.

JAL last year ordered 15 Embraer 170s, the first of which is due to arrive in Japan later this year.

"How about the Japanese?", I said to my friend at Embraer who was quick to reply that JAL had already ordered E-Jets so there is no way they would order MRJs as well.

Well, lets not be so sure about that.

A quick scan of the news out of Japan paints a very different story.

JAL is currently trying to get its finances in order as part of its turnaround plan and guess which large Japanese corporation has been coming to JAL's aid.

For example, in December Japan's Nikkei newspaper reported that JAL is looking to raise up to 150 billion yen ($1.3 billion) by selling shares to two Japanese conglomerates, one of which is Mitsubishi.

And in mid-February JAL announced it had raised 42.2 billion yen ($390 million) by selling and then leasing back two maintenance hangars at Tokyo Haneda Airport. It sold the hangars to a real estate investment trust controlled by Mitsubishi.

If Mitsubishi is pumping in the best part of $1 billion to help JAL financially then I don't see why JAL wouldn't want to return the favour by buying a few MRJs.

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